Methodology

Structure

The site is organised in four layers: industry → occupation → sub-occupation → task. Each occupation has one or more sub-occupations, and each sub-occupation is split into 3–5 core tasks. The unit we judge as “replaced” is the task, not the whole job.

Two years per task

• Entry year: when AI / automation started being used at scale for the task.
• Replacement year: when the task largely no longer needs a human in mainstream settings.

Three statuses (computed from the current year, 2026)

• Replaced replacement year ≤ current year
• Being replaced entry year ≤ current year < replacement year
• Will be replaced entry year > current year

Statuses update automatically as the years pass.

Replacement year for occupations

A sub-occupation counts as “largely replaced” once ≥70% of its tasks are replaced. An occupation’s share is the average across its sub-occupations.

• Current share ≥ 70% → Replaced
• Projected to reach 70% by 2033 → Being replaced
• Everything else → Will be replaced

Sources and disclaimer

Years are estimates combining public technology progress, product adoption and industry research. All years after 2026 are projections with substantial uncertainty. “Replaced” means automation at the task level, not that the whole job disappears — many roles shift toward supervising, reviewing and handling exceptions.

Contributing data

Edit data.js and add tasks as [name, entry year, replacement year, note]; a year ≥ 2045 means after 2045. Translations live in the data dictionary of each file under locales/.